Red Sox Targeting Wrong Superstar

The New York Daily News reported today that the Boston Red Sox are “putting on a full court press” in an attempt to acquire Toronto ace Roy Halladay. To get the deal done, the Daily News speculated that the Sox would have to give up Clay Bucholz and top pitching prospect Casey Kelly. Despite that heavy price tag, the move seems like an obvious one for the Red Sox. Halladay, the American League’s premier pitcher over the last decade, would join Josh Beckett and Jon Lester to form baseball’s most formidable trio of starting pitchers.

But is a Halladay trade the best move the Sox could make this offseason? It would seem ridiculous to claim otherwise. Over the past two seasons, Halladay has won 37 games and posted a sub 2.80 ERA. Still, if the Sox want to trade away their top prospects for the immediate upgrade of a proven veteran, Theo Epstein and co should pursue a different American League star – Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera offers greater value to the Red Sox in several ways. Despite finishing third in the American League in runs scored in 2009, the Sox need to upgrade their offense. Specifically, the Red Sox lack a fearsome power hitter in the middle of their lineup. Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and Victor Martinez are all quite good, but they are not the type of players that opposing teams must account for and pitch around consistently. Most championship teams feature one or two monster hitters in the middle of their lineup. The 2004 and 2007 Red Sox had Manny and Ortiz. The Yankees have Teixeira and ARod. The Phillies have Utley and Howard. As valuable as Youkilis is, the Red Sox do not have a superstar, middle of the lineup, power hitter.

Cabrera would fill that void. For his career, Cabrera has produced the following 162 game averages: 33 HR, 117 RBI, .311 BA, .383 OBP, .542 SLG. The addition of Cabrera would elevate Boston’s offense to an elite level that is currently only occupied by the Yankees and the Phillies. Boston needs this type of offensive upgrade more than the boost Halladay would provide to the pitching staff. With Beckett and Lester at the top, the Red Sox have one of the most formidable starting rotations in baseball without Halladay. The offense – not the pitching staff – let the Red Sox down in their divisional series loss to the Angels. The Red Sox scored just one run in the first two games in Anaheim, paving the way for an Angels sweep.

The argument for Cabrera over Halladay strengthens when looked at from a long-term perspective. Halladay’s contract expires after the 2010 season, and any deal for Halladay will have to include a contract extension. Considering his resume, Halladay will command a Johan Santana/CC Sabathia type deal. The numbers will probably end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 million over five years. But Halladay, who turns 33 in May and has over 2,000 career innings pitched, has significantly more miles on him than Santana and Sabathia did when they signed their mega-deals. The Sox could get stuck paying 20 million a year for a pitcher on the downslide of his career.

Meanwhile, the 26 year-old Cabrera has just entered his prime years as a hitter and has six seasons and 126 million left on his deal. Cabrera’s contract will be up before he turns 34. Thus, if the Red Sox were to acquire Cabrera, they would not be on the hook for any of his post-prime years.

Cabrera does not come without baggage, though. In the final week of last season, with Detroit embroiled in a fierce divisional race, Cabrera was detained by police as a result of a drunken domestic dispute with his wife. The slugger has struggled with weight problems in the past. The Red Sox would have to keep a close watch on Cabrera, but the chance to acquire baseball’s best hitting talent not named Pujols greatly outweighs the risks. Plus, the Red Sox have some recent experience with a talented, but troubled slugger. And that worked out pretty well for them.