The Buck List NFL Pick Off: Week 12

Green Bay (-11) at Detroit [Green Bay 34, Detroit 12]
John: Detroit (1)
Ryan: Green Bay (5)
Kevin: Green Bay (2)

Brilliant Prediction (Ryan): The Packers, winners of two straight, take their show on the road where winning streaks don't exactly go to die. It would take a Thanksgiving miracle for the Lions to cover much less win, with rookie Matthew Stafford nursing an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Even if the gutsy Stafford manages to start, don't look for him under center by the second half against a Packers defense playing inspired football and a Lions offensive line yielding the 5th most sacks in the league. At least we'll get our fill of Fox's loveable robotic turkey. Take the Pack and change the channel.

Oakland (+13.5) at Dallas [Oakland 7, Dallas 24]
John: Oakland (4)
Ryan: Dallas (2)
Kevin: Oakland (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Kevin): Oakland’s offense looked much better last week with new starter Bruce Gradkowski at the helm in a win over the Bengals. Can the Raiders pull off another upset this week? Probably not, but the combination of Romo’s sore back and Oakland’s stellar cornerbacks should keep the game close.

NY Giants (-6) at Denver [New York 6, Denver 26]
John: Giants (2)
Ryan: Giants (1)
Kevin: Giants (3)

Brilliant Prediction (John): Kyle Orton will be back starting for Denver, but the reeling Broncos will need far more than Orton to keep up with a Giants team that, at least for a half, once again looked like a Super Bowl contender last week.  Don't get me wrong, Orton's had a fairly good season, but I'm pretty sure that the last time his return meant much of anything to a football team was in the fourth quarter of the 2004 Ohio State game.  And let's just say I'm not encouraged when Justin Tuck is out there saying things like this: "I eat every day; I am not worried about necessarily eating on Thanksgiving Day. Hopefully I get to eat some quarterbacks."  I made my mistake picking the Broncos last week (and oh what a mistake it was), so I'll atone for my sins this time around.

Tampa Bay (+12) at Atlanta [Tampa Bay 17, Atlanta 20]
John: Tampa (1)
Ryan: Atlanta (1)
Kevin: Atlanta (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Ryan): After an emotionally draining overtime loss to the Giants last week at the Meadowlands, the Falcons are 5-5 and officially in must-win mode. 12's a big number, but too many signs point to an Atlanta cover. Tampa Bay rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has yet to start a game outside of Florida, and the Georgia Dome -- which hasn't hosted the Falcons since November 8th -- should cause him some problems. The favorite in this rivalry is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. Make it 6-1 after Sunday's matchup in Atlanta.

Miami (-3.5) at Buffalo [Miami 14, Buffalo 31]
John: Miami (4)
Ryan: Miami (3)
Kevin: Miami (6)

Brilliant Prediction (Kevin): All of Miami’s games have been close this year except one – a 38-10 thrashing of Buffalo in week 4. Buffalo hasn’t improved much. The Bills have only scored 20 points in a game once since that loss. Things haven't been much better for Buffalo on the defensive end. The Bills have the second worst rushing defense in the league, while Miami possesses the league’s fourth best rushing offense. For the second time this year, the Dolphins will win big over the Bills.

Cleveland (+14) at Cincinnati [Cleveland 7, Cincinnati 16]
John: Cleveland (1)
Ryan: Cleveland (2)
Kevin: Cincinnati (1)

Brilliant Prediction (John):  Aside from the Bears, the Bengals simply don't blow teams out. When these two met in Cleveland, the Bengals eked out a three-point victory, and that was with lowly Derek Anderson throwing 48 passes.  If you take away the 45–10 aberration against the Bears, the Bengals' average margin of victory in their other six wins is just over five points.  If they're going to blow anyone out it might as well be the Browns at home after an embarrassing loss to Oakland, but I can't rationalize giving up 14 points with a team that has won by more than a touchdown only twice all year.

Indianapolis (-4) at Houston [Indianapolis 35, Houston 27]
John: Indianapolis (5)
Ryan: Indianapolis (1)
Kevin: Indianapolis (3)

Brilliant Prediction (Ryan): Maybe the best game of the weekend pits the undefeated Colts against the reeling Texans. It will be interesting to see how the Texans respond with a short week following a tough loss at home against the Titans on Monday night. Houston head coach Gary Kubiak's mind games with fumble-happy Steve Slaton are costing the offense big plays. If hitting Rihanna in the face put points on the board, Chris Brown would be more than serviceable in the backfield. But it doesn't -- and the better third of TBL thinks Monday signified the beginning of the end for the new Oilers -- Colts cover.

Carolina (-3) at NY Jets [Carolina 6, New York 17]
John: NY Jets (1)
Ryan: Carolina (1)
Kevin: Carolina (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Kevin): The Jets have not had the best couple of weeks. After a last second loss to Jacksonville, the formerly cocky Rex Ryan cried in a team meeting…and then his players told the media about it. After this Sunday’s blowout at the hands of the rivals Patriots, a humbled Ryan whined about the Pats attempting a pass late in the game. Oh, and incompetent rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has thrown six interceptions over those two games. This week, Carolina and its fifth-rated pass defense pay a visit to Sanchez and the Jets. Carolina will win, and Jets fans will start calling for Kellen Clemens.

Washington (+9.5) at Philadelphia [Washington 24, Philadelphia 27]
John: Washington (1)
Ryan: Washington (2)
Kevin: Philadelphia (2)

Brilliant Prediction (John): I'll be straight with you, reader.  I never have any idea what to expect when Philly plays Washington. Or when Philly plays anyone, really.  I'd gladly wager 0 on this thing, but apparently there are rules to the Pick Off.  I will say this, however: For as bad as the Redskins are (and they are bad), they somehow keep their games extremely low-scoring. Nine and a half points is a lot of to give to a team that so often keeps games below 21. Washington has only lost by ten once this year—it just happens to be to the Eagles . . .

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis [Seattle 27, St. Louis 17]
John: St. Louis (1)
Ryan: Seattle (2)
Kevin: Seattle (4)

Brilliant Prediction (Ryan): In St. Louis' 9 losses this season, they have allowed an average of almost 36 points per game, including a 28-0 loss in the opener at Seattle. Can St. Louis then, without Marc Bulger, score enough points to cover? If you're still not sold, St. Louis hasn't beaten Seattle since the 2004 playoffs, despite tangling with them twice a year since. John Carlson's 4 touchdowns carry Seattle to the easy cover.

Kansas City (+13.5) at San Diego [Kansas City 14, San Diego 43]
John: Kansas City (1)
Ryan: San Diego (1)
Kevin: San Diego (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Kevin): Don’t let last week’s upset of Pittsburgh fool you: Kansas City is still a bad team. Only the Lions and the Browns have lower rated defenses than the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Chargers have won five in a row, including impressive wins over the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos over the last three weeks. In week 7, the Chargers destroyed the Chiefs 37-7 in Kansas City. Expect more of the same and quite a few obnoxious Philip Rivers facial expressions in San Diego on Sunday.

Jacksonville (+3) at San Francisco [Jacksonville 3, San Francisco 20]
John: San Francisco (1)
Ryan: Jacksonville (3)
Kevin: Jacksonville (1)

Brilliant Prediction (John): Let's talk for a second about how awesome Michael Crabtree is. The kid sits out of camp, misses a third of the season, willingly takes advice from Deion Sanders, and generally behaves like a lunatic.  But then he realizes that he's going to need paychecks to love money as much as he claims, proceeds to have his way with the 49ers' brass, and produces as soon as he steps on the field (as a starter of course). Last week Crabtree scored his first NFL touchdown, and he looks to be well on his way to becoming a bona fide star.  As for his game this weekend: I think the 49ers' record belies how good they actually are, and it's easy to forget how closely they've hung with some of the league's best teams. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has put together a string of wins against the Who's Who of weak competition (Bills, Jets, Chiefs, and Rams) which has effectively glossed over the fact that the Jags' defense is terrible.  In those wins, the Jaguars still gave up almost 20 points a game. I think the Niners open up on offense and finally get over the hump this week (but I will never trust a team with Alex Smith at the helm for a confidence greater than 1).

Chicago (+11) at Minnesota [Chicago 10, Minnesota 36]
John: Chicago (1)
Ryan: Chicago (2)
Kevin: Minnesota (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Ryan): The Bears have fallen on hard times this year, and inflated expectations based on the offseason acquisition of quarterback Jay Cutler have done them no favors. Assuming Fat Jay doesn't OD on turkey, the Bears should be able to keep this one close. The Vikings, arguably the class of the NFC, are coming off of two home cupcakes in the Seahawks and Lions and will be challenged by a Bears team that played well enough to win against the talented Eagles last weekend at Soldier Field. The Vikings win, but not convincingly -- Bears cover.

Arizona (+3) at Tennessee [Arizona 17, Tennessee 20 (Push)]
John: Arizona (1)
Ryan: Arizona (1)
Kevin: Tennessee (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Kevin): The Cardinals say that Kurt Warner, who left last week’s game with a conussion, will play on Sunday. I’m not buying it. I can’t help hoping that the stars have aligned this week for another Matt Leinart-Vince Young showdown. As usual, VY comes out on top. Next week, Leinart will return to the bench and have more time to devote to his true passion.

Pittsburgh (+2) at Baltimore [Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 20]
John: Baltimore (3)
Ryan: Baltimore (1)
Kevin: Baltimore (1)

Brilliant Prediction (John): It seems we all forgot something before last week:  The Steelers aren't a good football team without Troy Polamalu.  With Polamalu, the Steelers are 4-0; without him they're 2–4, with losses to Chicago and Kansas City, and they even allowed Detroit to keep it interesting (without Matt Stafford or Calvin Johnson). The Ravens, on the other hand, are a combined 7 points short of beating Indy, Minnesota, and Cincinnati (the first time around) and looking like one of the best teams in the league.  In Baltimore, with a woozy Ben Roethlisberger and no Polamalu, I don't have much faith in the champs.

New England (+3) at New Orleans [New England 17, New Orleans 38]
John: New England (1)
Ryan: New England (2)
Kevin: New England (1)

Brilliant Prediction (Kevin): The undefeated Saints face their biggest test of the year Sunday when the Patriots visit New Orleans. The Pats, who are averaging a jaw-dropping 37 points per game over their last five contests, hope to avenge their embarrassing week 10 loss to Indianapolis with a Monday night win over the league’s only other undefeated team. It seems fitting that the evil Bill Belichik will end the Saints' feel good run.

(Not so Hot) Weekly Results
Ryan: 3 pts (total: 14)
John: –2 pts (total: 7)
Kevin: –5 pts (total: –4)