Everyone else is in the world is writing about it, so we might as well get this blog moving by wildly speculating about Notre Dame's search for a football coach. We of course have no inside information, but we sure do like to predict things. Because I am the smartest, I will go first:
1. Charlie Weis, whether officially or not, is done at Notre Dame. There is nothing left to save his job; even improbable wins against UConn and Stanford won't remedy his losing record over the past three seasons (he's currently 16-19), his nearly .200 lower winning percentage at Notre Dame Stadium than Bob Davie, or his back-to-back losses to Navy at home (with an even more dismal home loss to Syracuse sandwiched in between). So Jack Swarbrick can dance all he wants around when his "decision" on Weis's future will be made, but let's face it, Weis has already started packing his office.
2. If Notre Dame loses tomorrow against UConn, Weis's departure will be announced by Sunday. This is a little more controversial, and it contradicts Jack Swarbrick's earlier insistence on waiting until the close of the season to evaluate Weis's future, but I think it's true. Swarbrick
recently admitted that the "evaluation process" (read: coaching search) began weeks ago, and he has hedged on when exactly the final decision on Weis will be made. Since at least the Pitt loss, that search has to have been moving moving in full gear. An announcement Sunday after a loss on Saturday just confirms the inevitable and allows the program to move on as quickly as possible. Notre Dame has never fired a coach midseason before, but Ty Willingham's midcontract firing was also a first.
3. Bob Stoops will be Weis's replacement. I confess this one is 85% wishful thinking and 15% honest belief, but as long as there's nothing definite to go on, I'm clinging to it. First, the reasonable field of candidates has to be roughly: Stoops, Brian Kelly, Jon Gruden, Urban Meyer, Kirk Ferentz, and maybe Chip Kelly. There's no real reason to doubt
ESPN's and
Peter King's insistence that Gruden won't be coaching next year, so he's out. I think pure rationality has to count out Urban Meyer, too (despite whatever love he has previously professed for Notre Dame or what
Bodog thinks about the subject). I'd want nothing more than Meyer to replace Weis, but I just can't believe he'd leave what he's got working for him in Florida. So that leaves Brian Kelly and Bob Stoops as the next most likely targets. I think Notre Dame can get Brian Kelly if they want him -- no matter what facilities Cincinnati recently built him, he simply can't turn down the prestige of a job like Notre Dame. So I think the search ends there and there's no need to even talk about Ferentz, Chip Kelly, or anyone else really (assuming Notre Dame is interested in hiring Brian Kelly, which without concrete information otherwise, I see no reason to doubt).
That still leaves Stoops, who you have to assume Notre Dame prefers over Kelly. (Hell, they might prefer him over even Meyer.) But can Notre Dame lure him away? By all accounts Stoops has leveraged a massive contract out of OU, so unlike for someone like Kelly, I doubt that Notre Dame can do it on money alone. And the prestige is less potent here, too -- while becoming the next head coach of the Fighting Irish is no small gig, in college football today, it's really just a lateral move from Oklahoma. As long as Texas Tech or Oklahoma State don't start to disrupt the annual divide of Texas's best high school football players between OU and UT, recruiting is probably easier in Oklahoma, too (and you at least don't have to travel as widely).
But why then?