For several teams, there couldn't be more riding on this off season. The fate of the Knicks, Heat, Nets, Bulls, and the sport of basketball in Cleveland all wait uneasily for July. But where the free agents fall has serious implications for the league as whole as well as individual franchises. Because, while Lebron, Wade, Nowitzki, et al. could simply stay put, this summer presents an extraordinarily rare opportunity for the league's brightest stars to realign into a perfect constellation, birthing rivalries and sparking another golden age for the NBA. I know David Stern is
First, the major signings:
(1) Lebron James and Chris Bosh to the Knicks: Lebron simply has to land in New York. (And, no, not "New York.") It's the country's biggest and most glamorous city, and he's of course the league's biggest and most glamorous star. With Lebron, the Knicks are instantly the NBA's most valuable asset, and the revisionist legacy of Isiah's tenure will evaporate. The worst decade in New York basketball history can fade away like that store that used to sell Starbury's and the league can actually reap the tremendous reward of the sports and marketing capital of America.
But respectability and star power aren't enough for the revived Knicks. For the league to fully capitalize, New York needs to compete for championships. And that means the Knicks take that gigantic wad of cash and sign Chris Bosh, as well. With Lebron, Bosh, the scoring of Danillo Galinari, Wilson Chandler, and Toney Douglas, and Mike Dantoni's uptempo offense, the Knicks are immediately better than the all of the Cavs teams that Lebron has dragged kicking and screaming to the top of the East. Round out the roster with spare parts (Puerto Rican free agent Carlos Arroyo would be a nice crowd pleaser) and poach an inflated salary with Eddy Curry's expiring contract (I'm looking at you, Jose Calderon), and meet the 2011 Eastern Conference champions. You're welcome, Spike.
(2) Dwyane Wade and Amare Stoudemire to the Bulls: Dynasties aren't bad for league promotion, but they're nothing like a great rivalry. That's why ESPN can keep subjecting America to Magic Johnson's barely-literate renditions of his glory days and get away with it. And it's why Dwyane Wade needs to forget whatever he's heard about the organization's loyalty and sign with the Chicago Bulls. I challenge anyone to craft a better rivalry than that between a revived, Lebron-led Knicks and Wade's Bulls 2.0, both the star and the city with chips on their shoulders. Wade, after all, is the Chicago of the NBA: a great draw, and a wide margin ahead of the crowd, but still second billing. And those Bulls fans can hate Lebron for the same reason they hate the city of New York: because he's so clearly ahead of the competitors, and he knows it. It's white collar glamour vs. blue collar grit; The Chosen One vs. Fall Down Seven Times, Stand up Eight; Jordan Heir vs., well, Jordan Heir. And it's perfect.
In a perfect world, Wade lands here in a sign and trade that sends Luol Deng, Kirk Heinrich, and a glimmer of hope to the soon-to-be retooled Heat (more on them in a second). That leaves the Bulls' heap of cash for Amare Stoudemire. The core of Wade, Stoudemire, Derrick Rose, and Joakim Noah ensures one hell of an annual Eastern Conference Finals against James, Bosh, and crew.
(3) Joe Johnson and Brendan Haywood (along with Deng and Heinrich) to the Heat: The Heat have too much money to wilt away just because Wade had to move up north. Even with the addition of Deng and Heinrich (see above), the Heat have only $28 million on the books for next year thanks to the miniscule salary of Mario Chalmers. With cap holds for their 2010 first-round pick and seven unclaimed roster spots, that leaves Miami's cap hit at just under $33 million.
That gives them room to max-out Joe Johnson while still landing Haywood above the mid-level exception. Wade leaves but the Heat are looking at a core of Chalmers/Heinrich, Johnson, Deng, Beasley, and Haywood. Not too shabby in what is quickly becoming a cut-throat East.
(4) Dirk Nowitzki to the Suns: As much as it pains me as a Dallas fan, I'd then send Dirk Nowitzki out West to fill in for the departed Stoudemire. Although they haven't played together for 6 seasons, it seems everyone still links Dirk and Steve Nash in their minds. Maybe it's the stories we've heard of them being best friends. Maybe it's their foreign roots. Maybe the long hair. Probably the drinking pictures. Who knows. But these two seem made for each other. As great as the years have been since Nash's departure, I still have the warmest of places in my heart for Dallas's run and shoot days of "Dirty" and "Nasty." And like everyone else, I wouldn't mind seeing them play together again.
Dirk's addition to Phoenix also helps consolidate power atop the West, setting up a nice Good vs. Evil rivalry with the Lakers. L.A. would have the decided upper hand (especially after, say, two years and Nash's 38th birthday), but just the thought of Kobe's press conference following a Game 7 loss to these two makes me smile. It takes a good amount of maneuvering to clear the room to land Dirk here, but so long as I am controlling the league, it happens.
(5) David Lee (and Eddie House) to the Thunder: The West is going to need heirs to the aging Suns and Spurs and the now-feckless Mavericks. As terrible as it is geographically, Oklahoma City is an obvious choice for a successor. The Thunder already have one of the most promising young cores in the conference, and the league needs that core to blossom to help promote Kevin Durant as the superstar he is. Led by a trio of rookie pay–level stars (Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green), the Thunder are still about $14 million under the cap this summer. That's more than enough to sign Lee, who brings much-needed rebounding and interior scoring to the Thunder and fits nicely with their glut of perimeter-minded forwards. At 27, Lee becomes the elder statesman of a group that could be a serious force out West for several years to come.
After the roughly $10 million the Thunder will have to pay Lee, they are left with slightly less than the mid-level exception to play around with. That's not much, but it's enough to address one of OKC's biggest remaining needs: outside shooting. Deep as they are, the Thunder only have two legitimate three-point threats to spread the floor—Durant and back-up shooting guard James Harden. While their leftovers won't bring in the off-season's elite shooters (Kyle Korver, Ray Allen, and Mike Miller), they will more than cover an underrated next-best: departed Knick Eddie House. House would give OKC its most reliable outside shooter, and at point guard he fits their roster perfectly, easily taking over current backup Eric Maynor's minutes. With House and Lee, two less-heralded moves in this blockbuster off-season, the Thunder can solidfy themselves as a burgeoning power in the West's new vanguard. [Apologies to Notre Dame great Chris Quinn, who I originally had going to the Thunder before I realized House was on the market.]
(6) Carlos Boozer Stays Put (and other Jazz excitement): As fun as it is to shuffle players around, sometimes things are better left alone. Unfortunately for Summit-hopeful Carlos Boozer, that's the case with him and the Utah Jazz. With Boozer, Deron Williams, and excellent role players like Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap, the Jazz will remain a competitive, if not elite, team for the next several years.
Plus, even without cap space, the Jazz don't need to sit idly. Instead, they can make use of Andrei Kirilenko's ridiculously bloated contract which finally expires in 2011. Kirilenko's still useful, but not as useful as, say, Rip Hamilton or Hedo Turkoglu, both with significant contracts that their teams are likely regretting right about now. I'll take Hamilton, who's a better fit as a more natural shooting guard, and effectively slam the door on the Eastern Conference dynasty that could have been. Plus, I have more exciting plans for Turkoglu in a moment.
(7) Rudy Gay to the Clippers: By jettisoning some dead weight, the Clippers have actually positioned themselves well financially this off-season. After draft pick and roster holds, they are on the hook for roughly $37 million, about $20 million under the cap. That means the Clips can re-sign forward Drew Gooden (above the mid-level exception if need be) and still pry Rudy Gay away from the Grizzlies with a near-max contract. Though Gay is restricted, the financially strapped Grizzlies may balk at paying him top dollar. In my world, they do, and Gay goes to that other team in LA. The starting five of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Gay, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman (plus Gooden and whomever they take 8th overall in a few weeks coming off the bench) bring the Clippers some real hope going forward. The Clips will no doubt find a way to ruin that group, but in a couple of years it just may give America's greatest band-wagon city some pause when deciding which hometown team to p
After the jump, a variety of not quite "blockbuster" off-season moves, most sincere, some not.
Now, some less monumental moves:
(1) Eastern Conference Do-Over: While not actually a free-agent signing, the Raptors unload last year's expensive mistake Hedo Turkoglu on the team that perhaps wishes it hadn't given up on him so easily, the Orlando Magic, in exchange for Vince Carter and his expiring contract. This mutual do-over is too perfect to pass up, with each team getting back what it probably wants right now (Toronto, spending money, and Orlando, a functional player). Approximately a 0% chance this happens in real life, I am making it happen, largely so that I can watch Carter struggle between his repulsion at being back in Toronto and his need to hang onto one final 8-figure salary in what is now a quickly dying career.
(2) Ray Allen Stays in Boston: Boring, I know, but Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett have actually forged a legacy in their short time together, so it's only fitting they they ride it out til the end. Plus it keeps the Celts competitive for one or two more seasons.
(3) Mike Miller and Jordan Farmar to the Kings: Sure, they're in the basement of the West, but the Kings could actually put together an intriguing (perhaps not that intimidating) team. They have a ton of cash to spend this off-season and even though they didn't land any of the top free agents, they can start to gradually build a roster around the young trio of Tyreke Evans, Carl Landry, and Jason Thompson. Miller is a lethal shooter and at 30 he can still score and will take attention away from Evans and Thompson—the only two real offensive threats on the current Kings. He is at least a far sight better than Andres Nocioni, and will open up this offense quite a bit. Farmar is no star, but in an off-season devoid of point guard talent (I'm keeping Raymond Felton on an emerging Bobcats team) he's the Kings' best option for improving this gaping hole occupied currently by only Beno Udrih. He's athletic and can defend, and at 23 he still has plenty of room to improve. Farmar's restricted, and I imagine he would love to stay on the Lakers, but the Kings can slightly overpay him and lure him away with the prospect of playing 30 minutes a game. I'm not saying these moves make the Kings a strong contender out West, but they improve the team dramatically, and with about $23 million in cap space, they should be able to sign them while still keeping plenty of money left in the bank to continue to build moving forward.
(4) Udonis Haslem to the Blazers: I desperately wanted to use the Blazers' mid-level exception to improve their ever-growing potential out West, but they are weird team. Beyond Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, and (by default) Andre Miller, Portland is in large part a collection of somewhat interchangeable parts; they've amassed a wealth of good-not-great depth, so they aren't especially weak (or strong) in any one area. Despite a depth of talent at center, they could use Haslem's toughness and interior play at the 4. Sure Marcus Camby can play there, but he (1) doesn't have the offensive game of Haslem to spread out the defense and (2) is going to spend all his time at center when Oden inevitably gets injured. Plus, I'm not so sure that Camby and Oden pair that well together. A true point guard to take over for aging Andre Miller would also be a welcome addition, but they don't quite have the cash for both, and Haslem is a much more valuable addition than, say, Chris Duhon.
(5) Matt Barnes to the Nuggets: Denver is way over the cap, but Barnes would be a perfect addition with their mid-level exception. Plus, screw Orlando.
(6) Marquis Daniels to the Warriors: Let's face it, the Warriors, as currently composed, are never going to take someone they really need (like, say, a true point guard or an actual big man). So instead, they should add Daniels (for much less than the full mid-level exception), whose athleticism and versatility are perfect for Nellie's system (remember when he ran the point in the playoffs his rookie year?) and he might even defend every other possession, which would be a significant improvement over all of their current players. But really, because Daniels on the Warriors just seems right.
(7) Jermaine O'Neal to the Rockets: O'Neal has somehow been in the NBA for 13 years. He deserves no more than the mid-level exception at this point in his career, but he's a hell of lot better Yao Ming understudy than Chuck Hayes.
(8) Nate Robinson to the Spurs: Not entirely sure why, but I would love to see Nate come off the bench as the Spurs spark.
(9) Tracy McGrady, Larry Hughes, Jerry Stackhouse, and Quentin Richardson to the Nets: The Nets have over $30 million to spend this off-season. Let's see how much their bandwagon likes Brooklyn after they blow it on this spending spree. Have fun, Hova.
(10) Allen Iverson to the Mavericks: Finally, brokenhearted and Dirkless, the Mavericks spend their mid-level exception on Iverson, purely to entertain me en route to last place in the West. Kick Jason Kidd to the curb and run him out there with J.J. Barea and Roddy Beaubois as much as possible. Because, why not?
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