Hockey Night at TBL: The Great Divide

Hockey Night at TBL marches on, albeit depressingly.  Up next: The US learns how the rest of North America usually feels. 

I know the U.S. hockey team doesn't stand a chance at the Olympics.  I know it pales in comparison to Team Canada.  I know the Americans will be lucky to get even a bronze medal or a meaningless preliminary round victory over the Canadians.  I know all that.  But does it have to be so depressing to see on paper?

Here's the thing:  Team USA is not good.  And to make matters worse:  rival Canada is completely (if predictably) stacked.  The difference between the two teams is staggering.  And it reinforces just how far U.S. hockey has to go until it can be elite again at the international level. 

First, Let's compare some numbers.  We'll start with the teams' forwards:

These tables show the current NHL stats for Team USA's and Canada's respective forwards.  It doesn't take Mike Milbury to see the difference.  Collectively, Canada has scored 66 more goals and tallied 116 more points than the United States—or about 5 goals and 9 points per player.  They're also +27 better (a 63% increase over USA's +43).  Canada has only one player with less than 30 points: Brendan Morrow with 27 (and he's not on the team to score anyway).  USA has 5.  Canada has 6 of the NHL's top-20 scorers—and they left four more off the roster (Brad Richards, Marty St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, and Nathan Horton).  USA has two—they didn't leave any off.  Ten of the thirteen Canadians are either first or second in scoring on their NHL teams (all but Marleau, Morrow, and Toews).  Four Americans are (Kane, Kesler, Langenbrunner, and Parise).  But it only gets worse . . .

These, of course, are the teams' defensemen.  And here's where a difference in talent becomes a joke.  Where to begin.  Well, the Canadians have scored more than four times as many goals and twice as many points as the Americans.  They are cruising along at a combined +62 (with only Scott Niedermayer in the red).  The Americans?  Dead even at 0, with four out of the seven at +2 or lower.  But now dig slightly deeper.  All but one of the Canadian defensemen have scored more points than the Americans' top scorers (Suter and Erik Johnson).  And that one (Brent Seabrook) is only 2 points behind them.  (Oh, and he leads the NHL in +/- rating.)  Six of the seven Canadians are among the NHL's top-20 defensive scorers.  They also left the league leader at home (Mike Green); he's scored more points than the Americans' top two defensemen combined, but he wasn't quite good enough for Team Canada.  You have to wonder if any of the Americans are either.

 

 

Last, the goalies.  At first glance, these are basically a wash.  To some extent, that's true: the Americans are at least much closer to the Canadians in terms of goaltending talent.  After all, USA has the reigning Vezina winner (Tim Thomas) and the early season favorite this year (Ryan Miller).  Which is great until you think of the broader picture—what have these goalies done in their careers?  Well, let's see, Thomas is a late bloomer who couldn't land a steady starting job in the NHL until his mid-30s.  Miller has been one of the NHL's better goalies for the past few seasons, but he's never been able to maintain elite status.  The Canadians?  First you've got Brodeur:  A three-time Stanley Cup winner, four-time Vezina winner, 10-time All Star, Olympic gold medalist, and, oh yeah, maybe the best goalie of all time.  Luongo checks in with a career .919 save percentage, two Vezina second-place finishes (both to Brodeur), and even a Hart Trophy runner-up.  He's never quite put it together in the playoffs, but for the better part of a decade, Luongo has been the next name behind Brodeur's in the debate over the best goalie currently playing.  And third in line?  Oh, just the guy coming off of back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals.  The goalie disparity is not nearly that of the forwards or defensemen, but if you want to actually win this tournament, you'd better take the Canadian netminders.

Finally, let's look at some "intangibles."  For instance, winning teams need leadership, right?  Well the Canadians have 8 current NHL captains (and another 6 alternate captains).  They have at least one captain at every position (Luongo is the NHL's only goalie captain).  The Americans have 3 total.   And if experience matters, the Americans are toast.  Team USA is quite consciously composed of young players—USA Hockey has decided to move beyond old standbys like Mike Modano and Bill Guerin.  So that leaves the U.S. team with 7 Stanley Cups spread across 4 players (Drury, Langenbrunner, Orpik, and Rafalski).  Canada has nearly double that: 13 Cups among 8 players.  Then there's the 3 Hart winners, 3 Art Ross winners, 2 Norris winners, and 1 Conn Smythe winner on Canada—none of which USA has.  Simply these Canadians have reached heights in their careers that the Americans never have.

In the end, the most depressing part of it all is that you can't really blame the gap—the chasm—between these teams on America's youth.  Sure USA Hockey jettisoned experience, but it's not like Canada is an aging dynasty.  No, 13 of Canada's 23 players are 26 years old or younger.  That's only one less than the Americans.  Add in Canadian snubs like 19 year-old Steven Stamkos (as many goals in the NHL since February as Alex Ovechkin) and 24 year-old Mike Green (reigning and current defensive scoring leader) and the Canadians don't look to be going away anytime soon.  Hopefully USA's recent gold medal at the World Junior Championships is a step in the right direction.  But at least at the top of the sport, for now it's clear:  Canada's future is no different than its present, and both are miles away from the Americans.